Polls show a tight contest between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris in the final stretch of the 2024 campaign season.
A RealClearPolitics Poll Average of national polls accessed Oct. 16 showed Harris leading Trump 49.5%-47.5%.
An Oct. 16 Marquette Law School Poll national survey of registered voters nationwide found a similar tight margin, with 48% of likely voters backing Harris and 47% backing Trump. Another 4% said they would vote for someone else while 1% said they would not vote for president.
The Jesuit school’s poll also found that in voting for Congress, 51% of likely voters say they would vote for the Democratic candidate while 49% said they will vote for the Republican candidate.
Robert Schmuhl, professor emeritus of American studies at the University of Notre Dame, who critically observes the modern American presidency, told OSV News that at this point in the campaign season, “the presidential race couldn’t be tighter, and it’s difficult to imagine one candidate or the other opening up a lead of more than a few percentage points.”
“Vice President Harris is still introducing herself to prospective voters, while former President Trump is pitching his appeal to like-minded people who don’t vote on a regular basis,” he said. “She’s following a broad approach, while he’s digging deeper into his base of support. Either way they are both trying to secure a fairly small number of votes for a razor-thin win.”
John White, a professor of politics at The Catholic University of America in Washington, told OSV News that he thinks other metrics, such as fundraising, slightly favor Harris. Democrats have reported stronger fundraising numbers than Republicans in recent campaign disclosure filings.
“Polling shows a tight race and I expect it will be that way,” White said.
Kate Scanlon is a national reporter for OSV News covering Washington.
